Inflation hits 3-year high, fueled by Iran war
Consumer goods cost an average of 4.2% more in May than a year earlier.
Americans are, on average, spending 4.2% more for food, energy, and other consumer items than they did a year ago, according to unadjusted May data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Much of that inflation was due to a spike in energy prices, the agency said, which soared after President Donald Trump launched U.S. military attacks on Iran in February. Experts say fuel prices may go up more this summer.
At an August 2024 rally in Bozeman, Montana, Trump promised that if returned to the White House, he would lower consumer prices: “From the moment we take back the White House from Kamala and Crooked Joe, I believe we’re going to have the four greatest years in the history of our country. Starting on day one, we will end inflation and make America affordable again. To bring down the prices of all goods, we will stop the Biden-Harris war on American energy and we will drill, baby, drill. We’re going to bring them way down. That’s what caused the inflation. Their stupid energy policies caused the inflation.”
Inflation has continued throughout Trump’s second term, fueled, analysts say, by tariffs he imposed on nearly all imported goods and services.
Iran responded to U.S. military attacks by blocking ships from moving through the Strait of Hormuz, a key passageway on the shipping route used to transport oil and other exports from the Middle East. The resulting drop in supply caused gasoline prices to climb and has contributed to the average American family paying $447.19 in additional energy costs, according to Moody’s Analytics data.
The current 4.2% inflation rate for the previous 12 months is at its highest level in three years and is above the 3% rate reported when President Joe Biden left office in January 2025.
“President Trump was rightfully touting how the May CPI report showed that, despite temporary disruptions in energy markets, prices of prescription drugs, dairy products, cars, as well as both health and auto insurance along with other essentials continue to decline thanks to the Trump administration’s policies,” said White House spokesperson Kush Desai in an emailed statement. “President Trump has consistently maintained that oil and gas prices – and thus overall inflation – will plummet once the Iran situation is resolved, and the Administration will continue pushing our affordability agenda to enable Americans to keep more of their hard-earned money.”
Analysis published on June 9 by CNN found that Trump has claimed at least 38 times that a peace deal with Iran was imminent, but as of June 11, U.S. military strikes continued and the Strait of Hormuz remained closed.
The Washington Post reported on June 11 that energy executives warned the White House gasoline prices will rise again this summer as supplies are used up.
“I have absolutely no doubt the White House — from the president on down — is fully aware of the nearly universal alarm among oil companies and analysts about the direction of travel for oil prices this summer,” Bob McNally, founder of the research firm Rapidan Energy Group, told the paper.
“Because we’re now producing more than 13.5 million barrels of oil a day, that has provided a buffer for American consumers during this time of crisis. But it can’t last forever, which is why we’re sounding the alarm on these inventories going to record lows. We need to be very concerned about that,” Mike Sommers, president and CEO of the American Petroleum Institute trade association, told Fox Business on June 5. “We should be concerned about what prices we’re going to see over the course of the next few weeks. We have to solve this problem in the Strait of Hormuz. Fortunately, American production has been a buffer for American consumers.”
On June 3, the House of Representatives passed legislation directing Trump to remove U.S. military forces from hostilities in Iran, on a 215-208 vote.
Iowa Republican Reps. Randy Feenstra, Ashley Hinson, Mariannette Miller-Meeks and Zach Nunn voted against withdrawal.
It now awaits action in the Senate. On May 19, Republican Sens. Joni Ernst and Chuck Grassley voted against advancing a similar resolution. That resolution still awaited a final floor vote as of June 11.
On June 10, Democrats on Congress’ Joint Economic Committee released an estimate that Iowa families have paid over $2,600 more than they did before Trump took office, on average, for goods and services.
